- Global trade volume is expected to continue growing in the fourth quarter this year although at a slower pace than in the first half, according to the World Trade Organization
- The overall WTO Goods Trade Barometer index fell to 101.8 in September, down from 102.2 in June
- The Goods Trade Barometer signals changes in world trade growth two to three months ahead of the merchandise trade volume statistics
- As the barometer remained above its baseline value of 100, it suggests that trade volume is likely to grow more slowly in the fourth quarter but remain above trend
- The indices for air freight and container shipping were still above trend at 102.7 and 101.7, respectively
- However, their values declined over the last three months, indicating a cooling off in the transportation of goods worldwide
Global trade volume is expected to continue growing in the fourth quarter this year although at a slower pace than in the first half, according to the World Trade Organization (WTO) based on its barometer index.
The overall barometer index fell to 101.8 in September, down from 102.2 in June and below the quarterly trade volume index representing actual merchandise trade developments through the second quarter, the WTO said in a news release.
The Goods Trade Barometer, formerly referred to as the World Trade Outlook Indicator, gives signals on changes in world trade growth two to three months ahead of the merchandise trade volume statistics. It is one of the leading indicators that WTO developed to monitor and provide “real-time” information on trends in global trade.
As of September, the barometer, remained above its baseline value of 100, which suggests that trade volume is likely to grow more slowly in the fourth quarter but remain above trend.
Barometer values greater than 100 are associated with above-trend trade volumes while barometer values less than 100 suggest that goods trade has either fallen below trend or will do so soon.
“Goods trade growth appears to have slowed in the second half of 2025,” according to the WTO. This follows a surge in the first half driven by frontloading of imports ahead of the US tariff hikes and by rising demand for products related to artificial intelligence (AI).
The barometer’s component indices were all above their common baseline value of 100 except for the agricultural raw materials index, which was at 98.0.
WTO noted that the agricultural raw materials index has been in contraction since the start of the year.
The indices for air freight and container shipping were still above trend at 102.7 and 101.7, respectively.
READ: Air cargo demand up for 6th month in Aug 2025 – IATA
However, their values declined over the last three months, indicating a cooling off in the transportation of goods worldwide.
Meanwhile, the indices for automotive products (103.0) and electronic components (102.0) remained constant over the same period.
The forward-looking new export orders index (102.3) surpassed the baseline value of 100 in the second quarter following some earlier volatility, pointing to sustained momentum in global exports. On balance, the indices point to a moderation in the pace of global trade growth.
Merchandise trade in the first half of 2025 recorded stronger than expected growth – up 4.9% year-on-year – but higher tariffs and lingering trade policy uncertainty are expected to weigh on growth in the second half.
READ: WTO hikes 2025 global trade forecast after stronger H1, sees slowdown in 2026
According to the WTO’s most recent trade forecast dated October 7, trade volume growth in 2025 is expected to be around 2.4%, but this could potentially come out higher if demand for AI-related products remains strong.
WTO said its next trade forecast will be released in April 2026.
READ: Global trade grows by $300B in first half of 2025
