- Global trade in goods and services expanded by about $300 billion in the first half of 2025 despite a slower pace of growth, according to UN Trade and Development
- Trade in services remained the main engine of growth, rising 9% over the last four quarters
Global trade in goods and services expanded by about $300 billion in the first half of 2025 despite a slower pace of growth, the UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said in a statement.
According to the latest Global Trade Update, global trade rose by an estimated 1.5% in the first quarter, with growth expected to accelerate to 2% in the second quarter.
Trade in services remained the main engine of growth, rising 9% over the last four quarters.
Price increases contributed to the overall rise in trade value. Prices for traded goods edged up in the first quarter and likely continued to rise in the second, while trade volumes grew nominally by 1%.
Trade growth was again led by developed economies after briefly falling behind.
The world’s developed economies outpaced developing countries in the first quarter of 2025, reversing recent trends that had favored the Global South, according to UNCTAD’s update.
The shift was driven by a 14% surge in US imports and a 6% jump in EU exports.
In contrast, developing countries saw a 2% drop in imports. South-South trade stagnated overall, though Africa bucked the trend with exports up 5% and intraregional trade growing 16% year on year.
On the negative side, trade imbalances deepened during the last four quarters, with the US posting a larger deficit and China and the EU recording widening surpluses.
Bilateral gaps also widened between the US and key partners, including China ($360 billion annual deficit), the EU ($276 billion) and Vietnam ($116 billion).
With global trade facing policy risks and geopolitical headwinds, the short term outlook is pegged as uncertain.
The UNCTAD report warned that global trade faces mounting headwinds in the second half of this year, amid persistent policy uncertainty, geopolitical tensions and signs of slowing global growth.
Meanwhile, new US tariffs – including a 10% baseline rate and additional duties on steel and aluminum – have raised the risk of trade fragmentation.
While retaliatory measures have been limited so far, a further wave of unilateral actions “could trigger escalation, spilling over to third-party countries and destabilizing supply chains,” stated the UNCTAD Global Trade Update.
Domestic subsidies and inward-looking industrial policies are likewise expected to intensify, particularly in strategic and high-tech sectors.
These measures risk disrupting deeply integrated production networks, with uncertainty in one segment spilling over to others.
Still, signs of resilience remain, said UNCTAD.
Freight indices have rebounded from early-2025 lows, regional integration is strengthening, and services trade may continue its robust growth.
Continued resilience in the second half of 2025 will depend on “policy clarity, geoeconomic developments and supply chain adaptability,” UNCTAD concluded.
READ: Global goods trade starts 2025 strong with imports surge in Q1
