DHL trade index: solid growth for Mar-May amid robust air, ocean trade

DHL trade index: solid growth for Mar-May amid robust air, ocean trade

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Global trade is expected to continue its solid growth in the next three months as the DHL Global Trade Barometer increased by two percentage points in March compared to January.

DHL said the positive outlook for world trade has continued to improve. The DHL Global Trade Barometer increased to 66 points in March from 64 points in January when the newly created index was initially published.

“With an index value clearly above 50, the DHL Global Trade Barometer continues to signal solid positive growth for global trade within the next three months. Furthermore, the increase indicates that growth is gaining momentum,” DHL said in a statement.

The overall good prospects are also reflected in the fact that the trade barometer points to an increase in trade activity for each of the seven constituent countries. Compared to the findings in January, the improved global index is mainly driven by an increasingly positive outlook for Korean and U.S. trade.

In contrast, the prospects for German trade eased after the strong peak seen in 2017. India continues to show the highest index value of all seven countries for the overall trade predictions, while the UK, after a modest decline since January, scores the same level as China at the lower end of the country ranking.

Developments in air and ocean trade are slightly contrasting, said DHL. The global air trade outlook drops slightly by -1 point compared to January, but remains very positive at 70.

The outlook for global air trade is pushed downward, as German and South Korean air trade growth in particular is expected to slow down. On the upside, air trade growth in China and the U.S. is expected to accelerate.

Meanwhile, the outlook for global ocean trade improved to 63 points in March from 60 points in January. This growth is also driven by the U.S. and China, together with a strong increase in South Korea, offsetting a slightly reduced growth outlook for UK and German ocean trade.

Launched in January 2018, the DHL Global Trade Barometer is a new and unique early indicator for the current state and future development of global trade. It is based on large amounts of logistics data that are evaluated with the help of artificial intelligence. The indicator has been developed in cooperation between DHL and IT service provider Accenture.

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