- China’s economy beats expectations with 4.8% growth in the first quarter of 2022
- Analysts had forecast between 4.3% and 4.4% growth in January-March, up from 4% expansion in the fourth quarter of 2021
- China has set a 2022 GDP growth target of around 5.5%, but that has been clouded by lockdowns amid the new wave of COVID-19 contagion and the Ukraine war
China’s economy beat analysts’ expectations in the first quarter of 2022, expanding 4.8% year-on-year, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on April 18.
Gross domestic product had been forecast to expand 4.4% from a year earlier, up from 4.0% in the fourth quarter last year, Reuters said it gathered from a poll of analysts. Bloomberg said the median estimate of analysts it polled was 4.3% growth.
GDP rose 1.3% quarter-on-quarter in January-March, compared with a forecast 0.6% advance and a revised 1.5% growth in the previous quarter.
Industrial output rose 5.0% in March from a year earlier, down from a 7.5% increase seen in the first two months of the year, according to the NBS data. The figure exceeded a 4.5% rise predicted by analysts, Reuters reported.
Retail sales in March contracted 3.5% y-y, worse than a forecast 1.6% easing, amid increasing COVID-19 outbreaks and lockdowns, after expanding 6.7% in January and February. The figure was well below expectations for a 1.6% decrease.
Reuters said increased global risks from the war in Ukraine, COVID-19 lockdowns and a weak property market are putting a chokehold on the Chinese economy, the world’s second-largest, and that some economists see increasing risks of a recession.
Late on Friday, the People’s Bank of China announced it would cut the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves for the first time this year, releasing about 530 billion yuan in long-term liquidity to cushion a sharp slowdown in economic growth.
China predicted earlier this year that its GDP could grow to around 5.5% this year, but some analysts say that may now be tough to achieve without more aggressive stimulus measures.
The NBS said despite “the multiple tests of increasingly grave and complex international environment and frequent outbreaks of the Covid-19 pandemic at home,” national economic recovery was sustained and the operation of the economy was generally stable.
According to preliminary estimates, GDP in the first quarter reached 27,017.8 billion yuan (US$4.24 trillion), up 4.8% y-o-y at constant price, or up by 1.3% over the fourth quarter of 2021.
By industry, the value added of the primary industry was 1,095.4 billion yuan, up 6.0% y-o-y; that of the secondary industry was 10,618.7 billion yuan, up 5.8%; and that of the tertiary industry was 15,303.7 billion yuan, up 4.0%.
The consumer price index (CPI) grew 1.1% y-y with the price gauge specifically in urban areas rising 1.2% and that in rural areas going up 0.7%.
“Generally speaking, the national economy in the first quarter continued the momentum of recovery, performing within the reasonable range. However, we must be aware that with the domestic and international environment becoming increasingly complicated and uncertain, the economic development is facing significant difficulties and challenges,” the NBS said.
