- WTO doubles its 2026 goods trade growth forecast to 3.9%, from 1.9% in March
- Chips and servers drove nearly half of global goods trade growth in early 2026
- Asia leads with 9.9% export growth; services trade forecast cut to 3.3%
Global goods trade will grow faster than expected in 2026 as booming investment in artificial intelligence (AI) offsets the fallout from the Middle East conflict, the World Trade Organization (WTO) said in a statement.
In its latest Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report, the WTO raised its 2026 merchandise trade growth forecast to 3.9%, up sharply from the 1.9% it projected in March. It expects growth of 4.1% in 2027, up from an earlier forecast of 2.6%. The report was released on October 8, 2026.
WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said the figures “reflect trade resilience in action.”
Goods trade beats expectations despite conflict
Merchandise trade volume grew 3.5% in the first half of 2026, beating expectations despite disruptions from the Middle East conflict. The WTO said the upgrade shows global supply chains have adjusted to disruptions in energy and fertilizer markets.
Middle East crude oil exports fell about 24% in the first half, and LNG shipments dropped 47%. But extra supply from other producers kept the drop in global crude exports to around 6% and in LNG exports to just 1%. Global container shipping volumes rose 3.9% in the first seven months of 2026.
AI goods drive nearly half of trade growth
The WTO cited a stronger-than-expected surge in AI-related capital investment. In the first half of 2026, AI-enabling goods such as semiconductors and servers made up 47% of global merchandise trade growth, with trade in these products up 67% year-on-year.
In 2025, 23.2% of AI-related goods exports came from Southeast Asia, and 40.4% from South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Japan.
Asia leads regional growth
Asia is set to lead merchandise trade growth in 2026, with exports up 9.9% and imports up 9.5%. Africa is also expected to grow strongly, with imports up 8.9% and exports up 5.6%.
North American imports are forecast to grow only 1.4%, though exports should rise 5.7%. Middle East imports and exports are projected to fall sharply, by 15.4% and 17.2%. Europe’s exports are expected to dip 0.1%.
The WTO expects Asia’s contribution to growth to ease in 2027 as AI-related trade slows.
The report also noted that US imports from China fell 29% in 2025, cutting China’s share of total US imports to 9.3% from over 20% before trade tensions flared in 2018.
Services trade outlook cut
The WTO lowered its 2026 services trade forecast to 3.3% from 4.8%, citing higher aviation fuel costs linked to the Middle East conflict. Services trade is expected to rebound to 6.4% in 2027. Digitally delivered services, such as computer and financial services, held up and continued to support overall services growth.
Global GDP is projected to grow 2.6% in 2026 and 2.9% in 2027.
Risks ahead
The WTO warned of several risks: higher fuel and fertilizer costs from disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, the Russia-Ukraine war, weaker household purchasing power and a possible slowdown in AI investment.
READ: WTO projects slower global trade growth in Q4
