• Global trade is expected to reach a record $33 trillion in 2024, driven by a 7% rise in services trade, though geopolitical risks and trade wars cloud the 2025 outlook
• Developing economies face mixed prospects, with slower overall trade growth but opportunities in high-growth sectors such as ICT and apparel
• Stable global growth and easing inflation create a chance for these economies to build resilience amid uncertainties
• Traditional sectors, such as energy and metals, face pressure, with significant declines in 2024, but automotive trade shows signs of recovery
Global trade is expected to reach a record $33 trillion in 2024, driven by a 7% rise in services trade, though geopolitical risks and trade wars cloud the 2025 outlook, according to the UN Trade and Development’s (UNCTAD) latest global trade update.
This $1 trillion increase, a 3.3% annual growth, is primarily driven by a surge in services trade (7%), while goods trade rose by a modest 2%, remaining below its 2022 peak.
Developing economies saw a 1% contraction in imports and a similar decline in South-South trade during the third quarter of 2024. In contrast, developed economies drove global trade growth, with imports rising 3% and exports 2% in the same period.
Despite these challenges, high-growth sectors like information and communication technology (ICT) and apparel showed strong momentum, with third-quarter gains of 13% and 14%, respectively. UNCTAD highlights these sectors as opportunities for diversification and entry into value-added industries.
“Stable global growth forecasts and easing inflation also present a chance to build resilience in 2025,” UNCTAD said in a statement.
Traditional sectors critical to developing economies faced declines in 2024, with energy trade down 7% year-on-year and metals trade contracting 3%. Automotive trade, while dipping 3% in Q3, is on track for 4% annual growth.
UNCTAD calls for strategic policies to foster trade diversification and strengthen links to global markets. UNCTAD Secretary-General Rebeca Grynspan emphasized the need for targeted policies to bolster trade diversification and reduce dependencies. “Trade remains a cornerstone of sustainable development,” she said.
“To seize the opportunities in 2025, developing economies need coordinated support to navigate uncertainty, reduce dependencies, and strengthen their links to global markets, ” Grynspan said.
READ: UNCTAD wants ‘rethink’ of strategies to arrest global slowdown
